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A Perspective on Trinidad and Tobago’s Natural Gas Reserves
In 2007, the Government of Trinidad and Tobago (GOTT) commissioned a consulting firm to study the country’s natural gas reserves. The report, known locally as the Ryder Scott Gas Resources Report, was released to the public in the third quarter of 2007. The report questioned the adequacy of our nation’s natural gas reserves, sparking the debate over the Natural Gas Resources Report. the end of the road’ was in sight. In this report, we are using up our gas reserves much faster than they are replacing them (finding new reserves). Our country’s proven reserves (both oil and natural gas) will run out by 2025 if no new deposits are discovered. Given that the sector accounts for nearly eighty percent (80%) of Trinidad and Tobago’s (T&T) foreign earnings, the public response has been surprisingly small. This lack of response is probably due to a lack of understanding of the definition of oil reserves. Politicians are adding to public confusion when they try to classify potential resources as proven resources, because that makes the situation significantly worse.
There are three (3) main categories of resources: Proved, Probable and Possible. The industry accepted definitions are as follows.
> Proved reserves – the amount of oil that can be reasonably estimated to be commercially recoverable from known reserves under certain economic conditions, exploitation methods, and government regulations. Analysis of geo-science and engineering data has determined these quantities since the given date, and there is a 90% probability that the quantities actually obtained will equal or exceed the estimates.
> Contingent reserves – additional reserves that are less likely to be recovered than proven reserves, but more certain than recoverable reserves. Analysis of geo-science and engineering data indicates that actual recovery has a fifty percent (50%) probability of equaling or exceeding the sum of probable reserves plus proven reserves.
> Potential reserves – additional reserves that are unlikely to be covered by potential reserves. Analysis of geo-science and engineering data indicates that there is a ten percent (10%) probability that the actual amount recovered is equal to or greater than the sum of the proven plus probable reserves.
Simply put, a stock is identified as a fish we catch, it can be weighed, smelled and eaten. Potential resources are candidates for development. They are like a fish on a hook, but the size is unknown, so the fish may come off the hook. Potential resources are like fish that may be in the water, but we don’t know for sure. Even if potential and potential resources are created, this is not certain, and investors will pursue economically feasible projects based only on proven resources. Financial institutions such as the International Monetary Fund (IMF) want to be clear and probably do not lend much less than their available reserves.
From an industry perspective, there is still more gas to be found. Energy experts believe the undiscovered field is no more than 0.5 trillion cubic feet (tcf). This is much smaller than many previously discovered tcf fields. Our country consumes an average of 1.5 tcf of gas per year. However, over the past few years, our reserve position has been declining as new discoveries have increased to only 0.5 tcf annually. These experts estimate that we need to drill thirty (30) to forty (40) exploratory wells each year, but in 2007 and 2008 we were drilling more than ten wells each year, considered one of the best in Trinidad. ten (10) hydrocarbon regions of the world.
The global economic downturn is the reason for the decline in activity in the sector. Fiscal conditions have been tightened so much that foreign oil and gas companies are no longer interested in exploring here. T&T now has one of the highest taxes in the world. Energy executives believed that because T&T was such an attractive carbon resource province, foreign companies would line up to do business regardless of tax conditions. This belief has been proven wrong. It’s a global industry, and investments go where they can get the best returns. If proper incentives are not provided, exploration will not increase and the industry will continue to decline.
On December 12, 2007, at the Seventh (7th) Energy Caribbean Conference held in Trinidad, Port of Spain, a prominent politician spoke about oil and gas as a young man in the 1970s. is about to end. The letter was written decades ago. Therefore, we were of the position that we came to find oil and we will find it. This is flawed logic. Someday, my fellow Trinidadians and Tobagonians, our luck will run out.
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